Analyzing precious metals returns using a Kalman smoother approach

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to analyze the sensitivity of different external factors to the returns of the precious metals of gold, silver, platinum and palladium. The goal is to find similarities and differences between the dependencies of every factor to each metal in a time-varying framework.Design/methodology/approachA brief co-integration test for the precious metals is conducted followed by a Kalman smoother approach to study the different sensitivities to the price changes of precious metals. A dynamic time warping (DTW) approach finally compares sensitivities for pairs of precious metals to a specific factor.FindingsResults point to strong time-dependencies of the sensitivities, such as a declining relationship of gold to equity volatility. Consistent strong relationships are rare and can be identified for the consumer price index and the dollar. the DTW approach finds higher similarities between platinum and palladium compared to other pairs.Practical implicationsThe similarities and differences of the precious metals can be used by investors and risk managers in portfolio construction processes and risk analyses.Originality/valueThe focus of the research is put on a broader context of precious metals with different external factors instead of focusing on a single factor, enabling a comparison of differences and similarities of the sensitivities. The analysis via a Kalman Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother together with a DTW approach has not been conducted before in this way and is able to characterize the dependencies by a single number.