Analyzing land use and land cover change in the Pra River Basin: A multi-tool approach for informed decision-making

Abstract

Quantifying land use and land cover change (LULCC) is essential for addressing societal challenges and conserving ecosystems. This study focuses on analyzing the dynamics of five LULC classifications at a 30 m spatial resolution using satellite imagery from Landsat, coupled with various tools (Google Earth Engine, ArcMap, QGIS, and IDRISI SELVA) and indicators such as the Bare Soil Index (BSI). Historic time series data (2007, 2015, and 2023) were utilized to assess land change and predict future scenarios (2030 and 2063) using (CA) Markov models of the land change modeler (LCM). With a kappa coefficient and overall accuracy of 95 %, and 93 % respectively, our analysis reveals that LUC has significantly impacted nearly a third of the Pra River Basin (PRB) land area in two decades (2007–2023) after the launch of Agenda 2063 (The Africa We Want), with projected future impacts doubling under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Geographical variations in LULC change processes are evident, with farmland abandonment, deforestation, and agricultural expansion observed predominantly in the northwestern region (Upper Pra, Anum, and Birim) of the basin. A 25 % increment of cultivated/farmland from 2007 to 2015 and a further 8 % in 2023. The northeast region (Upper and Lower Offin, Twifo Praso) faces deforestation and encroachment along riverbanks, along with built-up expansion due to mining activities. The northern region (Oda and Upper Pra) experiences exponential built-up and bare land increment. Accelerated phases of LULC change are attributed to factors such as mining (illegal and small-scale), agricultural production, migration, and population increment highlighting the influence of economic activities on land use dynamics. The concept gives a hybrid approach of using multi-tools in offering critical awareness of the state of the river system and encouraging the need for informed decision-making towards the anthropogenic impacts on the basin through effective management of LULC classes.