Analyzing indirect economic impacts of wildfire damages on regional economies.

Abstract

This article estimates the economic impacts of wildfire damage on Korea's regional economies, developing an integrated disaster-economic system for Korea. The system is composed of four modules: an interregional computable general equilibrium (ICGE) model for the eastern mountain area (EMA) and the rest of Korea, a Bayesian wildfire model, a transportation demand model, and a tourist expenditure model. The model has a hierarchical structure, with the ICGE model serving as a core module to link to three other modules. In the impact analysis of a wildfire, three external shocks are injected into the ICGE model: (1) the wildfire damaged area derived from the Bayesian wildfire model, (2) changes in travel times among cities and counties derived from the transportation demand model, and (3) variations in visitors' expenditures derived from the tourist expenditure model. The simulation shows that the gross regional product (GRP) of the EMA would decrease by 0.25% to 0.55% without climate change and by 0.51%-1.23% with climate change. This article contributes to the development of quantitative linkages between macro and micro spatial models in a bottom-up system for the impact analysis of disasters, integrating a regional economic model with a place-based disaster model and the demands of tourism and transportation.