Analyzing Independent LFMC Empirical Models in the Mid-Mediterranean Region of Spain Attending to Vegetation Types and Bioclimatic Zones

Abstract

This paper presents empirical models developed through stepwise multiple linear regression to estimate the live fuel moisture content (LFMC) in a Mediterranean area. The models are based on LFMC data measured in 50 field plots, considering four groups with similar bioclimatic characteristics and vegetation types (trees and shrubs). We also applied a species-specific LFMC model for Rosmarinus officinalis in plots with this dominant species. Spectral indices extracted from Sentinel-2 images and their averages over the study time period in each plot with a spatial resolution of 10 m were used as predictors, together with interpolated meteorological, topographic, and seasonal variables. The models achieved adjusted R2 values ranging between 52.1% and 74.4%. Spatial and temporal variations of LFMC in shrub areas were represented on a map. The results highlight the feasibility of developing satellite-derived LFMC operational empirical models in areas with various vegetation types and taking into account bioclimatic zones. The adjustment of data through GAM (generalized additive models) is also addressed in this study. The different error metrics obtained reflect that these models provided a better fit (most adjusted R2 values ranged between 65% and 74.1%) than the linear models, due to GAMs being more versatile and suitable for addressing complex problems such as LFMC behavior.