Abstract
Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model.
Highlights
Decadal-centennial land use and land cover change (LUCC) has been considered as a vital driver of global environmental change[1,2,3,4,5]
Considering the richness of historical documents and the availability of regional LUCC data derived from the historical topographic maps, physical environmental background maps including those of terrain, climate, geology, soil, vegetation and hydrology as well as socioeconomic statistical data based on our previous research, we choose to represent Zhenlai County, located in northwestern Jilin province, as a case study
Based on available historical data, the total quantity of each land use was calculated according to the weights of various data sources, such as historical documents, Markov model results and vector data derived from topographic maps (Fig. 3)
Summary
Decadal-centennial land use and land cover change (LUCC) has been considered as a vital driver of global environmental change[1,2,3,4,5]. A land use forecasting model (e.g., cellular automata, Geomod) as a carrier can be used to produce a backward simulation In this context, to enhance our understanding of the degree and extent of global and regional anthropogenic changes in land use patterns[36,37], a spatial-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model) is explored and proposed in this paper. Our model will aim to satisfy this demand This model approach can produce backward projections by analyzing land use changes over time, and it is a dynamically dependent approach based on the assumption that current spatial land use pattern is intrinsically linked to historical patterns. This research will make us understand better the historical land use and land cover change over the past century in northeastern China and provide harmonized, spatially explicit and high resolution land use change products to ecological issues’ study
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