Analyzing Extreme Events Using Standardized Precipitation Index During the 20th Century for Surat District, India

Abstract

The study of floods and droughts requires the knowledge of wet and dry event sequences. They are the two important extreme conditions which directly or indirectly affects every field of environmental science. These extreme conditions are due to the change in one, of the many but most important parameter, rainfall. The standardized precipitation index is designed to quantify the rainfall for multiple time scales. These time scales reflect the impact of drought/floods on the availability of the different water resources. The modified classification by Agnew is referred for the classification of wet and dry events during the 20th Century for Surat district. The monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2000 is utilized to determine the SPI values. SPI was calculated for 4, 6, 12, 24 and 48 months time scales. The area experienced more than 20% years of dry and wet events for the 20th Century. It is observed that the years 1942, 1945 and 1959 are identified as severe wet events for all the time scale. Year 1998 is identified as moderate wet event for all time scale. Years 1936 and 1987 are identified as severe dry events and year 1935 is identified as moderate dry event for all the time scales. No extreme wet event was observed. For extreme dry scenario all the years identified for different time scales are different.