Analyzing Census tract foreclosure risk rates in mature and developing suburbs in the United States

Abstract

In the early 2000s, many policymakers and researchers became concerned about suburban decline. The recent national subprime, foreclosure, and economic crises have intensified these concerns. In this study, I analyze the 2010 Neighborhood Stabilization Program 3, the 2005/2009 American Community Survey, and other databases with descriptive statistics and weighted least squares regression models. Differentiating among tracts in central cities, mature suburbs, and developing suburbs in the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas, I examine what factors determine the Census tract foreclosure risk rate and what differentiates these factors. Results show that mature suburbs have foreclosure rates similar to central cities and that similar factors determine the neighborhood foreclosure risk rates among central cities and mature and developing suburbs to a different degree. These results demonstrate the need for place-based interventions.