Abstract

The UK’s exit from the European Union (EU) has potential ramifications for the country’s electricity sector, given its increasing interlinkage with other EU electricity systems. Brexit could hamper the development toward higher market integration and the realization of new interconnector projects. Moreover, a fall in the value of the Pound, resulting from Brexit in the medium term, could also affect the electricity trading structure. Combining a European electricity market model and a multi-criteria decision analysis tool, this study assesses the implications of Brexit for the electricity market of Great Britain (hereafter GB) for 2030, from the perspective of (i) political decision makers, (ii) electricity consumers, and (iii) producers. Results indicate that the implications of Brexit depend on the future development of the GB electricity system and on the objectives of the respective stakeholders. Possible opportunities brought by Brexit under a low-carbon trajectory contrast with greater challenges and tradeoffs between stakeholders under alternative power system development paths. Despite increased British autonomy in energy and climate matters, there remains interdependency between British and EU energy policy.

Highlights

  • Britain’s vote in June 2016 to leave the European Union (EU) represents a dramatic shift in the country’s relationship with the rest of the EU, following over 40 years in the Union

  • Applying the Electricity Market Model for Europe (EMME), we address the question of the effects of Brexit on the Great Britain (GB) electricity system by analyzing the implications of a reduced expansion of net transfer capacity (NTC) between the GB grid and EU neighboring grids combined with a fall in the value of the Pound

  • By introducing the consideration of stakeholders’ viewpoints to the assessment of quantified power system scenarios with an multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool, this paper provides a differentiated analysis of the effects of Brexit on the GB power system

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Summary

Introduction

Britain’s vote in June 2016 to leave the European Union (EU) represents a dramatic shift in the country’s relationship with the rest of the EU, following over 40 years in the Union. One sector that could be influenced by Brexit is the Great Britain (GB) Analyzing the impact of reduced expansion of interconnector capacity between the EU and GB on the joint Irish electricity system is beyond the scope of this paper) electricity sector, as it is a system that has experienced increasing integration with other electricity systems in the EU. There has been attention in the literature on the implications of reduced integration for UK energy policy and security [6,7]: This integration has come e.g., in the form of interconnectors linking GB’s electricity grid with those of neighboring EU countries, enabling the trading of electricity. The European Commission has set a target for net transfer capacities to equal 10% of all installed capacity by 2020 and 15% by

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