Analyzing and Evaluating Future Water Demand Using WaterGEMS and Population Forecasting Methods for Narangi Village, Maharashtra, India

Abstract

The analysis of the water distribution network [WDN] is essential for a sufficient water supply. In the present study, the water distribution network [WDN] of the Narangi village in Virar was analysed using WaterGEMS software. The obtained results from the analysis were used to evaluate the impact of the growing population on the water distribution system in the coming decades, i.e., from 2020 to 2050. For population forecasting, the arithmetical increase and geometrical increase methods were adopted which were later used as “Low Population Growth Scenario" [LGS] and "High Population Growth Scenario" [HGS] respectively. The results obtained show that the maximum flow is observed in pipe 1, and the maximum demand is seen at junction 67. In 2020, the flow rate in Pipe 1 was 1036 litres per minute, but by 2050, it had risen to 1655 litres per minute. Demand at junction 67 was 54 litres per minute in 2020, and it had escalated to 86 litres per minute by 2050. This shows an increasing trend in pipe flow and demand at junctions due to the growing population over the decades. The future water demand is estimated under two population growth scenarios i.e., LGS and HGS. The comparison shows that unmet water demand estimated using the HGS, i.e., 0.223 and 0.601 million m3, is more than the LGS, i.e., 0.035 and 0.174 million m3 for the years 2040 and 2050, respectively. This signifies that unmet water demand in HGS and LGS will result in water scarcity in the study area. As a result, new water sources and the construction of new storage tanks should be planned and implemented as measures to reduce future unmet water demand.