Analyzing Adoption and Replacement of Rice Varieties in NSW

Abstract

The pattern of adoption and disadoption of a new research outcome has considerable impact on the total benefits to the industry from such research. The aims in this paper are to examine the pattern of adoption of individual rice varieties developed in NSW, and to develop an estimate of the expected adoption curve for different types of rice varieties. The analysis indicates that the pattern of adoption and disadoption of rice varieties can be modeled successfully. A framework is developed for estimating the expected adoption and disadoption pattern of a new rice variety at the time of its release. Unfortunately, the data were insufficient to enable credible results to be obtained. As a result, the basis for estimating adoption of new rice varieties remains unresolved and needs more data to be satisfactorily determined.