Abstract
An analysis of 1955 physics graduate students from 19 Ph.D. programs shows that undergraduate grade point average predicts graduate grades and Ph.D. completion more effectively than GRE scores. Students’ undergraduate GPA (UGPA) and GRE Physics (GRE-P) scores are small but statistically significant predictors of graduate course grades, while GRE quantitative and GRE verbal scores are not. We also find that males and females score equally well in their graduate coursework despite a statistically significant 18 percentile point gap in median GRE-P scores between genders. A counterfactual mediation analysis demonstrates that among admission metrics tested only UGPA is a significant predictor of overall Ph.D. completion, and that UGPA predicts Ph.D. completion indirectly through graduate grades. Thus UGPA measures traits linked to graduate course grades, which in turn predict graduate completion. Although GRE-P scores are not significantly associated with Ph.D. completion, our results suggest that any predictive effect they may have is also linked indirectly through graduate GPA. Overall our results indicate that among commonly used quantitative admissions metrics, UGPA offers the most insight into two important measures of graduate school success, while posing fewer concerns for equitable admissions practices.Received 19 May 2021Accepted 9 July 2021DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.17.020115Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article’s title, journal citation, and DOI.Published by the American Physical SocietyPhysics Subject Headings (PhySH)Research AreasDiversity & inclusionEducational policyResearch methodologyProfessional TopicsDiversityGraduate studentsInterdisciplinary PhysicsPhysics Education Research
Highlights
As physics graduate admission committees across the country consider eliminating GRE scores from consideration when evaluating applicants [1,2], it is important to continue examining the GRE’s ability to predict success in graduate school in order for programs to make informed policy choices
We seek to answer two primary research questions in this paper: 1. How do commonly used admissions metrics and demographic factors relate to physics graduate GPA?
We are interested in the strength of association between graduate grade point average (GGPA), undergraduate GPA (UGPA), and GRE scores, as this information yields insight into whether GGPA could serve as a mediating variable in predicting final disposition
Summary
As physics graduate admission committees across the country consider eliminating GRE scores from consideration when evaluating applicants [1,2], it is important to continue examining the GRE’s ability to predict success in graduate school in order for programs to make informed policy choices. GRE scores are among the numeric metrics that best predict admission into U.S graduate programs [3,4], there are significant disparities in typical GRE performance between students of different demographic backgrounds [5]. Graduate faculty often cite high grades, graduation in a reasonable amount of time, and finding a job after graduation as indications of successful graduate students [9] It is crucial for admissions committees to understand how these other measures of success are related to common quantitative admissions metrics as well. While the GRE-Q assesses basic concepts of arithmetic, algebra, geometry, and data analysis, the GRE-V assesses reading comprehension skills and verbal and analytical reasoning skills These tests are constructed to measure “basic developed abilities relevant to performance in graduate studies” [28]. Other research suggests that higher scores on standardized subject tests could reflect greater student interest in that subject area [29]
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