Analytical Prediction of China’s Status of Tax Revenue in 2014 the Preliminary Outlook of 2015

Abstract

From the first quarter of 2014, the accumulated tax revenue rapidly increased, with a growth rate of 2.5% points higher than the economic growth rate. Although it decreased to some extent in the second quarter, it was still 0.7% points higher than the economic growth rate. It continued to drop in the third quarter, but maintained a speed basically the same with the economic growth rate, which was only 0.4% points higher. The growth rate of the main tax revenues declined to different degrees compared with the previous year. The tax revenue in the major coastal provinces slightly picked up, which directly led to a slight rebound in the national tax revenue. If China’s macro economy stayed at the “new normal” in 2015, it was expected that the tax revenue would enter a period of moderate growth and would keep pace with the economic growth.