Analytical models for communication links in emergency management simulation

Abstract

SummaryEmergency response involves the management of several different types of critical infrastructures and resources. Because of the interdependent nature of these systems, it is often very difficult for human decision makers to determine what the second‐ or third‐order effects of their decisions or actions might be. This has resulted in the development of several simulation tools that could be used to evaluate decisions or behaviours and better inform decision makers about the potential impacts of their decisions. One area that remains underdeveloped in this regard is the engagement of communication technologies by human agents, which has the potential to seriously affect delay times in response coordination. Given the size and complexity of simulating the interconnection of heterogeneous systems, developing reduced‐order simulation models has become important to maintain reasonable computation times. This paper describes the derivation of the distribution of the total connection time for a communication link where multiple technologies are engaged. Results show that communication link simulation times, which are among the most time‐consuming simulation routines can be significantly reduced by using the closed‐form distributions.