Abstract

We consider the Schwartz 97 two and three factor models, which have been considered as benchmarks for pricing commodity derivatives in the last two decades. In order to take account of sudden regime shifts in commodity prices, we superimpose a regime shifting structure onto this framework. Using methodology developed by Duan et. al. (2002) and Swishchuk (2008) we are able to obtain within the resulting models closed form expressions for the values of European call options written on the commodity. Using data from the Gold, Copper and Corn markets, we find that the added regime shifting feature leads to a significant improvement in fit.

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