Analysts’ Recommendation Revisions and Subsequent Earnings Surprises

Abstract

This study examines the extent to which analyst recommendations were useful in identifying earnings surprises during the pre- and post-Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) periods. A comparative analysis of the association between recommendation revisions and subsequent earnings surprises suggests a significant decline in the predictive value of analysts’ recommendations after Regulation FD took effect. Recommendation revisions are roughly 55% less useful in predicting earnings surprises in the post-Regulation FD period. Furthermore, the average abnormal return earned by investors following analysts’ advice to exploit earnings surprises is approximately 70% lower in the post-Regulation FD period. Overall, this article’s findings are consistent with Regulation FD having considerably reduced analysts’ comparative advantage in identifying earnings surprises.