Abstract
The Covid-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the coronavirus strain SARS-CoV-2, it is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic worldwide. In this paper, we propose conceptual mathematical models of the epidemic dynamics of four compartments. We have collected data from the Djibouti health ministry. We study the positivity, boundedness, existence and uniqueness of the weak solution. Next, we define the Basic reproduction number by the method of the DFE and EEP. Then, we study the local and global stability and the bifurcation analysis of equilibrium to examine its epidemiological relevance. Finally, we analyze the fit of the data in comparison with the result of our mathematical results, to validate the model and estimate the important model parameters and prediction about the disease. We consider the real cases of Djibouti from 15th March to 15th May 2021.
Highlights
The Covid-19 epidemic is an emerging infectious disease of the viral zoonosis type caused by the coronavirus strain SARS-CoV-2, it is classified as a human-to-human communicable disease and is currently a pandemic worldwide
Covid-19 is an infectious disease caused by a coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2, which primarily affects the respiratory tract
Thereby, to predict the nature of the Covid-19 Djibouti, in this works we develop the SIHR model that stratifies a population based on their infection status as a function of time such as susceptible class (S), infected
Summary
Covid-19 is an infectious disease caused by a coronavirus, Sars-CoV-2, which primarily affects the respiratory tract. Compartmental models are governed by a system of differential equations that track the population as a function of time, stratifying it into different groups based on the risk or infection status, several extensions have been proposed to explain the evolution of Covid-19 disease [10] [11]. These models have been widely used by scientists around the world to model more complex compartments [12] [13] [14].
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