Analysis on the variation characteristics of Wuguan River runoff in South Qinling Mountain

Abstract

Aims at the hydrological analysis in the early stage of water conservancy project construction, studies the long series runoff and its variation law in Wuguan River, and analyzes the characteristics of annual and interannual changes in this paper, Provides basic support for the later reservoir construction. Based on the precipitation data (1959-2001) and the runoff data (1959-2014) from Wuguan hydrologic station, many methods such as statistical analysis, R/S, M-K trend test and mutation test were used to study the change rule of runoff. After that, influential factors of runoff were analyzed in the paper. Results show that the annual runoff of the Wuguan River is 1.53 million cubic meters, monthly runoff differs greatly in a year with clear period of concentration from Jul. to Oct.; Annual runoff showed a long-term decreasing trend and the mutation point appeared in 2010; Precipitation changes was the main cause of the decreasing runoff compared to human activities. Runoff forecasting showed weak increasing trend in the coming years. Overall, the runoff of the Wuguan River varies greatly between annual and interannual, but it can be used as a water source to supply water for the urban area of Danfeng County through the storage of reservoirs. The results can provide reference for the safe construction of water storage projects in the later period, and it has a reference value for the development and utilization of Wuguan River.