Analysis on the trend of cancer incidence and age change in cancer registry areas of China, 2000 to 2014

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the trends of cancer incidence and age changes in China with using cancer registration data, and to provide evidence for the development of cancer prevention and control. Methods: Twenty-two cancer registries with continuous (2000-2014) data were selected. The incidence of different sex and regional population, the standardized incidence rate by Chinese population, the average annual change percentage (AAPC) and annual change percentage(APC) were calculated. Age-period-cohort model were used to analyze the changes of cancer incidence, age-adjusted mean ages. The age-standardized proportion of 2000 and 2014 with were compared. Results: The cancer incidence in China increased by 3.9% (95%CI: 3.7%-4.1%) from 2000 to 2014 in APC, and the age-standardized incidence rate increased by 1.2% (95%CI: 1.0%-1.4%) in AAPC. The age-specific incidence showed that each age groups increased significantly in female, ranged between 0.9% to 6.0%. The APC in male aged from 60 years old showed decline trend, the APC in 60-69, 70-79, ≥80 years old were -0.2, -0.3, -0.3, while in the population aged 0-29, 30-39 years old increased dramatically, APC were 3.5, 2.0. Female under 60 also increased, and APC in 0-29, 30-39, 40-49, 0-59 years old were 5.7, 6.0, 3.4, 2.9, respectively. The mean age of patients diagnosed with cancer were increased during the past 15 years, with about 0.11 years per year increased. However, the mean age of the patients diagnosed with cancer showed decreased trend by 0.13 years after age structure adjusted. Conclusion: The trend of mean age for cancer incidence in China were getting younger than before, and the trend in women is more obviously than in man.