Abstract
ObjectiveTo predict the trend of AIDS in specific age groups and to determine the objective population for AIDS screening, this study explored the three transmission routes and characterized each patient group using the APC model based on the whole, local, and immigrant populations in Zhejiang, China.MethodsThe data recruited in this paper was obtained from the national Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Information System - Antiviral Therapy Management database and the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbook of Zhejiang, China. An APC model was used to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of AIDS, as well as to predict the AIDS incidence in specific age groups based on different sexes with different transmission routes.ResultsThe AIDS incidence peaked in males aged 20–35 years; the incidence of males was higher than that of females due to the impact of period; obvious cohort effect was observed among the immigrants. In the whole and local populations, the incidences of males in all age groups and females in both the 35-year-old group and the whole age group were predicted to increase sharply in 5 years. In the immigrant population, the AIDS incidences in both sexes in all age groups were expected to increase significantly in 5 years. Under the influence of period, the incidence of AIDS via homosexual transmission in the whole population and the local population increased and remained stable after 2015. At the same time, the incidence of AIDS transmitted by homosexual and heterosexual routes in the immigrants also showed an increasing trend.ConclusionsThe results elucidate that there are sex differences in AIDS incidence, and the incidence of AIDS through various transmission routes in all groups is predicted to exhibit an upward trend in the 5 years to come. Effective intervention strategies should be developed and implemented by the public health departments in Zhejiang to control the epidemic of AIDS.
Highlights
Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), a global health crisis caused by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) [1], can affect and destroy T lymphocytes of the human immune system, making the body unable to resist infections and diseases and even leading to opportunistic infections and deaths [2]
An APC model was applied to different populations in Zhejiang Province of China to analyze the incidence trend of AIDS via three transmission routes in each group
AIDS cases over 50 years old with heterosexual transmission accounted for the highest proportion, while the cases of homosexual transmission were mostly between 21 and 35 years old
Summary
Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), a global health crisis caused by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) [1], can affect and destroy T lymphocytes of the human immune system, making the body unable to resist infections and diseases and even leading to opportunistic infections and deaths [2]. By 2018, 77.3 million people had been infected with HIV and 35.4 million had died of AIDS-related diseases worldwide. By July 2017, about 728,270 people in China had been infected with HIV/AIDS and 223,798 had died of AIDS-related diseases [6]. 780,000 people are estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS, and 21.0% of them are migrant population [7]. Studies have shown that males have a higher incidence of AIDS than females in many countries [9, 10], the sex difference is not significant in the HIV/AIDS population in China. Few studies have focused on HIV/ AIDS prevalence and heterogeneity among the local population and migrant population in China. A better understanding of the sex differences in HIV/ AIDS among the local and immigrant populations and the differences in the HIV/AIDS incidence through different routes of transmission is crucial for AIDS prevention and control in China
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
