Abstract
Revealing the key influencing factors in urbanization is of great significance to the operability of national urbanization planning and decision‐making. Taking 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as the sample, this paper explores the driving mechanism of urbanization development during 2007–2016 by using Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Model (GTWR). The results show that the effects of the four dominant factors of social economy, education, secondary industry, and living environment are in line with expectations, with strong time fluctuation, obvious spatial nonstationarity, and a certain spatial gradient distribution. The formulation and implementation of the urbanization strategy should be based on the driving mechanism shown by the four models, coordinate the use of relevant policies, and give priority to ensuring the effective play of the primary driving factors.
Highlights
China has experienced the fastest urbanization rate in the world since 1978 [1]
Compared with the Geographic Weighted Regression (GWR) and TWR models, the regression coefficients of the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression Model (GTWR) model are nonstationary in both temporal and spatial distances; it can better explain the temporal and spatial distribution of factors affecting urbanization. e quartile table of the coefficients of each factor is further calculated (Table 3). e parameter estimates of each explanatory variable show a large degree of change and vary in positive and negative directions. e change in the intensity of the effect is obvious, indicating that the intensity of the impact of these factors on urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) has significant nonstationarity in both time and space
Based on spatial statistical methods, we construct TWR, GWR, and GTWR models to measure the temporal and spatial nonstationarity of the new urbanization driving mechanism in the YREB. e results show that the GTWR model is the best compared to the others
Summary
China has experienced the fastest urbanization rate in the world since 1978 [1]. By the end of 2017, China’s urban population accounted for 58.52%, and a transitional period from rapid growth to quality improvement and a critical transitional period from low-quality development to highquality development have been observed [2]. E 19th National Congress of the CPC and the No 1 document of the Central Committee in 2019 proposed that the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population should be accelerated, full coverage of basic public service facilities in urban areas should be promoted, and the quality of urbanization development should be further improved. China has a vast territory and large differences are observed in resource endowment, natural environment, industrial structure, demographic characteristics, etc.; the existing management policies that promote strong universality and weak targeting [3] can no longer satisfy the needs of new urbanization. To scientifically formulate and implement differentiated management and control strategies based on the temporal and spatial patterns of factors that influence urbanization in Complexity various regions and their heterogeneous characteristics [4], optimizing the existing policy system and promoting the healthy development of urbanization have become important issues that must be resolved
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