Analysis on the susceptibility of environmental geological disasters considering regional sustainable development.

Abstract

Environmental geological disasters seriously threaten human lives and property. A reasonable analysis of the susceptibility to environmental geological disasters is the basis for disaster prevention and mitigation and can promote the sustainable development of regional economy. This study analyzes the susceptibility of environmental geological disasters, such as collapses, landslides, and debris flows in Helong City, China. Through investigation and comprehensive analysis, ten environmental, geological disaster causing factors, including stratum lithology, distance from the fault, elevation, slope, aspect, rainfall, distance from the water system, NDVI, distance from the road, and profile curvature, were extracted. Combined with GIS, a vulnerability analysis database of environmental geological disasters was established, and vulnerability zoning prediction was performed by using two models of information amount and a generalized regression neural network (GRNN). Then, disaster-vulnerability factors such as population density, road density, GDP, and land use type were added. The results show that the predicted results of the two models are similar to the actual survey results.. The environmental geological disasters in the study area are mainly low and not prone to occur, and the northeast and central areas are highly prone to environmental geological disasters, which are the key prevention and control areas in the study area. The coverage rate of high-vulnerability areas with a high degree of economic development is 8.63%, and the prediction results of the GRNN model are mostly distributed in spots and strips, which is more conducive to accurate disaster prevention and mitigation and cost reduction, promotes regional sustainable development, and has guiding significance for disaster prevention and control and urban planning and construction.