Analysis on the Situation of Water Scarcity in Beijing City Based on NARSD Model

Abstract

Water Scarcity is a problem which draws the world's attention all along. Beijing, the capital of China, is an over-exploited region when it comes to water scarcity according to the UN water scarcity map. So this paper's major concern lies in developing a model that can measure and estimate the water scarcity and then alleviate the water scarcity in Beijing city. Firstly, a NARSD Model based on the System Dynamic Model and the Nonlinear Auto-regressive Model is developed to measure the water scarcity in Beijing with the rate of water supply and water demand. Secondly, the NARSD Model is used to forecast the water situation of Beijing in 15 years from 2015 to 2030. Finally, an intervention plan is proposed to alleviate the water scarcity in Beijing city based on the sensitivity analysis of the NARSD Model. And the effectiveness of the intervention plan can be verified by making comparisons between water situation of Beijing in 15 years under intervention and water situation without intervention as is shown at the last of this paper.