Analysis on the forecast of healthcare professionals quantity in China′s primary medical institutions.

Abstract

Objective To forecast the number of healthcare professionals at China′s primary medical institutions from 2016 to 2020, so as to provide the healthcare authorities with references for optimizing healthcare human resource allocation. Methods The Gray model was used to predict numbers of healthcare professionals in China from 2016 to 2020 on the base of health technicians data from 2010 to 2015. Results The forecast results showed that the number of healthcare professionals may be increased to about 600 000 people a year from 2015 to 2020.The number of healthcare professionals at China′s primary medical institutions was expected to grow about 204 000 people a year, and general practitioner may be increased to about 22 000 people a year.The annual growth rates of medical(assistant)practitioners, medical practitioners, registered nurses, pharmaceutical personnel and examiners in China were expected to be 3.20%, 2.81%, 6.88%, 1.53% and 2.16% respectively.The annual average growth rates of postgraduates, undergraduates and junior college graduates were expected to be 16.95%, 12.08% and 5.46% respectively. Conclusions In the future, the requirements for healthcare professionals at primary institutions will still be higher than demand in China, with a gap to be filled and their professional makeup and academic title to be optimized.Therefore greater efforts are required for their development to enhance their competence and professionalism, with reasonable staffing of the human resources. Key words: Health manpower; Primary medical institutions; Personnel administration; Gray model; Forecast