Abstract
Using hourly sea level data from four tide gauges, the changes of the extreme sea level in the Bohai Sea were analyzed in this work. Three components (i.e., mean sea level, tide and surge) as well as the tide–surge interaction were studied to find which component was important in the changes of extreme sea levels. Significant increasing trends exist in the mean sea level at four tide gauges from 1980 to 2016, and the increase rate ranges from 0.2 to 0.5 cm/year. The mean high tide levels show positive trends at four tide gauges, and the increasing rate (0.1 to 0.3 cm/year) is not small compared with the long-term trends of the mean sea levels. However, the mean tidal ranges show negative trends at Longkou, Qinhuangdao and Tanggu, with the rate from about −0.7 to −0.2 cm/year. At Qinhuangdao and Tanggu, the annual surge intensity shows explicit long-term decreasing trend. At all four tide gauges, the storm surge intensity shows distinct inter-annual variability and decadal variability. All four tide gauges show significant tide–surge interaction, the characteristics of the tide–surge interaction differ due to their locations, and no clear long-term change was found. Convincing evidence implies that the extreme sea levels increase during the past decades from 1980 to 2016 at all tide gauges, with the increasing rate differing at different percentile levels. The extreme sea level changes in the Bohai Sea are highly affected by the changes of mean sea level and high tide level, especially the latter. The surge variation contributes to the changes of extreme sea level at locations where the tide–surge interaction is relatively weak.
Highlights
Global frameworks, such as the Paris Agreement, have identified climate change adaption and disaster risk reduction as one of the prior issues worldwide [1]
Results (Figure 2) show that clearly decadal variations exist at HLD and TG, with low mean sea levels around 2000, while no clear decadal variability was found at LK and QHD
According to the locations of tide gauges (Figure 1), it seems that the sea level rise shows clear spatial characteristics, with positive trend increasing from north to south in the Bohai Sea
Summary
Global frameworks, such as the Paris Agreement, have identified climate change adaption and disaster risk reduction as one of the prior issues worldwide [1]. Other studies indicate that many other other can factors thesea extreme sea level changesincluding [15,18,19,20,21,22,23,24], change of the factors affectcan theaffect extreme level changes [15,18,19,20,21,22,23,24], theincluding change of the the astronomical astronomical tide, the wind driven components (surge) and the tide–surge interaction. For the coastal areas in China, onlyonly limited studies havehave been been donedone to analysis the extreme sea level level changes [15,25,26], comparing with studies on the mean sea level [27,28,29,30,31]. The relationship between the extreme sea level and each component was studied
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