Analysis on the evolution of spatial relationship between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Shandong region of China

Abstract

By analyzing the evolution relationship between population distribution and economic pattern in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and Shandong region, this paper aims to provide decision-making reference for the social sustainable development of this region. Based on 29 cities in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei and Shandong region, using rank-size method, imbalance index and growth elasticity coefficient, this paper explored the internal flow and spatial-temporal evolution trends of population and economic factors in the region from 1990 to 2020. The results show that: The Zipf dimension of urban population size was between 0.86 and 1.15, and the population monopoly of big cities increases first and then decreases. The Zipf dimension of urban economic scale was between 0.83 and 1.01. The economic monopoly of big cities increases first and then decreases, and the population ratio was ahead of the economy. The index of population and economic disequilibrium in the study area ranged from 0.83 to 1.15, indicating that both population and economic distribution showed significant disequilibrium, and the evolution of population and economic distribution was not coordinated. The elasticity of regional population and economic growth declined in the fluctuation, and the economic growth was significantly uncoordinated with the population change. It is suggested that the industrial pattern should be optimized and the development of advantageous industries should be accelerated in the areas with excessive population gathering. For areas with high economic concentration, industrial structure can be adjusted to promote the coordinated development of population and economy.