Abstract
As a major public health emergency, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on economies all over the world. The experience of post-COVID-19 economic recovery is of great significance for achieving sustainable and high-quality economic development. Taking the economic development of China as an example, based on the theory of resilient economy and related measurement methods, this article selects five major indicators that are generally recognized as closely connected with economic resilience to construct a system of economic resilience indicators. In addition, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to predict gross domestic product (GDP) under the scenario of no epidemic. The actual value of China's GDP is compared with the predicted value in the absence of the epidemic, verifying that strong economic resilience plays an important role in the country's economic response to major shocks. Based on the results, policy recommendations are made for countries to strengthen their economic resilience in the postepidemic era.
Highlights
The outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 and its rapid spread across the globe have caused huge shocks to the economies around the world
It is worth noting that the impact of COVID-19 on the economy is more severe than any major natural disaster or financial crisis in the past, but the relative error between the actual value of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 and the predicted value under the condition of no epidemic intervention is only 3.14%, and the level is equal to the average level, which fully demonstrates the strong economic resilience of China
It is a consensus that COVID-19 has an impact on the economy of all countries
Summary
The outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 and its rapid spread across the globe have caused huge shocks to the economies around the world. We use disposable national income per capita to replace the sales of consumer goods in China and add some additional relevant economic variables (such as the GDP index variable and the number of industrial enterprises) This robustness check shows that the trend of the resilience index has not changed, which fully shows that the results obtained by using the variables selected are reliable. It is worth noting that the impact of COVID-19 on the economy is more severe than any major natural disaster or financial crisis in the past, but the relative error between the actual value of Chinese GDP in 2020 and the predicted value under the condition of no epidemic intervention is only 3.14%, and the level is equal to the average level, which fully demonstrates the strong economic resilience of China
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