Abstract
Due to the arrival of COVID-19 in Italy and Europe, there has been a significant increase in deaths recorder in the year 2020, this increase is not justified by the number of deaths recorded for COVID-19. The hypothesis in that the deaths recorded for COVID-19 are underestimated. This study aims to estimate the possible number of unrecorded COVID-19 deaths using a predictive model built based on historical deaths recorded from 2015 to 2019. The estimate was calculated by comparing the number of deaths expected, according to the prediction for the year 2020 under normal conditions, with the deaths recorded during the pandemic in the same period which runs from March to September 2020. Through the comparison it was possible to obtain an estimate of the number of excess deaths which represent how much the arrival of the Coronavirus had affected the increase in death recorded. From the excess deaths, the number of COVID-19 deaths advertised and documented by official national sources was subtracted to obtain an estimate of the possible number of unrecorded COVID-19 deaths. Doi: 10.28991/HEF-2021-02-01-01 Full Text: PDF
Highlights
Between the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 in the city of Wuhan in China, numerous cases of contagion related to the diffusion of a new virus called COVID-19 were recorded
Was one of the first nations to register numerous cases related to the pandemic, the first infections of people not coming from China were recorded in Northern Italy from February 21, 2020, while the first death related to COVID-19 was registered on February 22, 2020 in the hospital of Padua
From the differences between the curve of deaths from all causes and the curve of expected deaths according to the prediction of the SARIMA model, was obtained the curve of excess deaths recorded in Italy from March to September 2020
Summary
Between the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 in the city of Wuhan in China, numerous cases of contagion related to the diffusion of a new virus called COVID-19 were recorded. It is a highly contagious virus belonging to the Coronavirus family that mainly affects the respiratory tract but can cause symptoms that affect all organs and system. The situation has progressively worsened, Italy suddenly found itself having to cope a health emergency with numerous hospitalizations and deaths, so much that the Government to counter the diffusion of the virus and limit the number of deaths, on March 9, 2020 has decided to take containment measures by declaring a national lockdown. The number of deaths continued to grow up, reaching a maximum peak on March 27, 2020, the date
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