Analysis on the Characteristics of Climate Change in Erhai Lake from 1956 to 2018

Abstract

The Erhai Lake in Southwest China is not only an ecologically fragile area but also a vulnerable area from climate change. In order to deal with climate change, the characteristics of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration of Erhai Lake were investigated by trend analysis methods, periodicity analysis methods and abrupt change analysis methods. The results showed that: During the period 2006 to 2018, average precipitation and temperature in Dali Station changed by -10% and +0.76°C, respectively, compared with before 2006. It is expected that the variation of precipitation in the future is not significant. However, the trend of temperature change is consistent with the current situation and will show an increasing trend. Under the influence of temperature rise, evapotranspiration showed an obvious increasing trend and it will continue to increase with temperature rise in the future. The primary period for the changes of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration were 30a, 20~25a and 10~20a. The abrupt change points of precipitation and temperature were approximately 2005, while the abrupt change point of evapotranspiration in 1980s.