Abstract
As a main grain production area in China, Northeast China (NEC) is highly influenced by the higher warming trend than elsewhere in China or even the globe. As the warming trend goes on, scientific understanding of the changes of thermal conditions in NEC will be essential for taking agricultural adaptation measures. In this paper, the high-resolution (25 km) corrected outputs of PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario were used to analyze the changes of the agro-climatic thermal resources in NEC. Results showed that accumulated temperature ≥10 °C (AT10) could increase by 300–500 °C·day, 500–900 °C·day, and 750–1000 °C·day in 2011–2040 (2020s), 2041–2070 (2050s), and 2071–2100 (2080s), respectively, relative to the baseline period of 1961–1990. The potential growing season (PGS) would then be prolonged by 11–19 days, 23–35 days, and 25–37 days in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared to baseline. The spatial features for the changes of thermal indices would show a large increase of AT10 and an extension of PGS and Frost-free period (FFP) in mountainous areas compared to plains; the increment of AT10 would be greater in southern NEC than that in the north, with over 1000 °C·day in the southern parts and 700–800 °C·day in the northern parts in the 2080s. Additionally, the three thermal indices would increase rapidly from 2020s to 2050s compared to the period from 2050s to the 2080s, coincides with the greenhouse gas concentrations peak around the mid-period of the 21st century, and the decline towards the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 forcing. The results of this paper could act as a guide to taking advantage of increasing thermal resources in NEC, and would be helpful for local practitioners in decision-making.
Highlights
Climate change is already incontrovertible in most regions of the world
It is estimated that the crop yield would experience a 3.4–8.0% reduction in 2026–2035 under RCP4.5 in China [15]; the rice growth duration would be shortened by four days in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River [16]; high-temperature-resistant rice varieties would gradually extend to the northern rice planting area; and the early ripening varieties in Northeast China (NEC) would be replaced by middle- and late-ripening varieties [17]
potential growing season (PGS) or for chimonophilous increased, the growth season either for thermophilic crops represented with PGS or for crops represented with Frost-free period (FFP) would prolong by more than one month in northern NEC in the mid-21st chimonophilous crops represented with FFP would prolong by more than one month in northern century and nearly one month in southern NEC in the later 21st century
Summary
Climate change is already incontrovertible in most regions of the world. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) [1], the global mean temperature has increased by 0.78 ◦ C on average in 2003–2012, relative to that of 1850–2012. A general feature of climate change in China is that northern regions tend to become warmer than southern parts; for example, the average temperature has increased by 1.7 ◦ C during the past 50 years in Northeast China (NEC) [7,8]. Chuzheng et al adopted the outputs of the regional climate model of BCC_CSM1.0, with a horizontal resolution of 50 km in latitude and longitude under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios to analyze the changes of agro-climatic resources during the 21st century in Northeast China. FOR PEER REVIEW km) climate scenarios generated from PRECIS2.1 under RCP4.5 to analyze the agro-meteorological thermal resources in NEC, with three typical indices selected: accumulated temperature.
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