Analysis on the Bias of Seismic Ground Motion Prediction in a Shallow Stiff-Soil Site by LSSRL-1 Program

Abstract

The main causes of the ground motion blind prediction bias are the variability of the adopted program, the shear-wave velocity of the site, and the soil nonlinear dynamic parameters. By considering the variability of shear-wave velocity and the dynamic parameters, this essay used LSSRLI-1 Codes and Mw6.0 seismic record of Parkfield earthquake to calculate ground responses of 9 different conditions at Turkey Flat site. The authors believe that the variability of shear-wave velocity caused the dominant impact to the blind prediction of this shallow stiff-soil site. That impact is much greater than that of the dynamic parameters. LSSRLI-1 program may either underestimate the ground response of the shallow stiff-soil site or may overestimate it, so we should combine the specific site conditions and a large amounts of data to do the further analysis.