Analysis on supply and demand of shared autonomous vehicles considering household vehicle ownership and shared use

Abstract

This research focuses on people's intention for use of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) as well as the ownership and shared use of their private vehicles in Meito Ward, Nagoya area of Japan. The nested logit model of mode choice is developed with person trip survey data while the multinomial logit model of autonomous vehicle ownership and shared use is developed with stated preference survey data. The former provides demand forecast for SAVs while the latter for the supply. The results of simulation analysis suggest that 20 to 30 % of trips are served by SAVs, and that 50 to 70% of the vehicles provided by households are sufficient to serve the demand without significant waiting time.