Analysis on Possible Introduction of PV System Considering Output Power Fluctuation and Battery Technology Employing Optimal Power Generation Mix Model

Abstract

This paper presents the evaluation on the impact of an extensive introduction of photovoltaic (PV) system and stationary battery technology into optimal power generation mix in Kanto and Kinki region. The introduction of solar PV system is expected to be extensively deployed in Japanese household sector and utility company in order to address the concerns of energy security and climate change. Considering this expected large-scale deployment of PV system in electric power system, it is necessary to investigate the optimal power generation mix which is technologically capable of controlling and accommodating the intermittent output-power fluctuation inherently derived from PV system. On these backgrounds, we develop both solar photovoltaic power generation model and optimal power generation mix model, including stationary battery technology, which are able to explicitly analyze the impact of PV output fluctuation in detailed resolution of time interval like 10 minutes at consecutive 365 days. Simulation results reveal that PV introduction does not necessarily increase battery technology due to the cost competitiveness of thermal power plants in load following requirement caused by PV system. Additionally, on the basis of sensitivity analysis on PV system cost, dramatic cost reduction proves to be indispensable enough for PV to supply a bulk of electricity similarly as thermal and nuclear power plant.