Analysis on mortality in HIV/AIDS cases aged 15 years and older under antiretroviral treatment in Henan province, 2002-2019

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the mortality in HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥15 years under antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Henan province from 2002 to 2019, and provide evidence for reducing the mortality rate of HIV/AIDS and AIDS prevention and treatment. Methods: Data of HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥15 years who received ART in Henan from 2002 to 2019 were obtained from "Infectious Disease Surveillance System - Basic Information on AIDS Prevention and Control". In this retrospective study, Cox proportional risk model was used to analyze the influencing factors for HIV/AIDS related deaths. Software SPSS 23.0 was used for statistical analysis. Results: From 2002 to 2019, a total of 72 986 HIV/AIDS cases aged ≥15 years received ART, in whom, 16 634 died during this period. Most of the death cases were aged ≥40 years old (68.5%,11 393/16 634), males (62.6%,10 419/16 634), infected through blood-borne transmission (71.7%,11 927/16 634), and farmers or migrant workers (91.7%,15 249/16 634). Most of the deaths were due to AIDS related diseases (73.7%, 12 261/16 634), and the case fatality rate was 16.8% (12 261/72 986). A total of 34.6% (4 237/12 261) of HIV/AIDS cases died of AIDS-related diseases in the first year of ART, and the cumulative survival rates at 10 and 18 years of ART were 78.3% and 71.8%, respectively. The proportion of the HIV/AIDS cases with baseline CD4+T lymphocyte (CD4) counts <200 cells/μl at age 15 years when ART started was 45.5% (30 432/66 898). Cox proportional risk regression model showed that, compared with the cases with baseline CD4 counts ≥350 cells/μl, the risk of death was 1.78 times higher than in the cases with CD4 counts <200 cells/μl (95%CI: 1.64-1.94) and 1.24 times higher in the cases with CD4 counts ≥200 cells/μl (95%CI: 1.13-1.36), respectively. The risk of death in symptomatic cases at baseline survey was 1.25 times higher than that in asymptomatic cases (95%CI: 1.16-1.35). The cases with a latest viral load ≥1 000 copies/ml had 7.09 times higher risk of death than those with a last viral load<1 000 copies/ml (95%CI: 6.65-7.54). Conclusions: The majority of HIV/AIDS deaths occurred in the cases aged ≥15 years receiving ART in Henan province during 2002-2019, who were infected through blood-borne transmission and farmers/migrant workers, and AIDS-related diseases were the main causes of the deaths. With the gradual implementation of ART policy, the high survival rate in HIV/AIDS cases can be maintained for a long time in Henan. To reduce the case fatality rate and improve the quality of life of HIV/AIDS patients, CD4 counts test should be further strengthened and eligible HIV/AIDS patients should be covered by standard ART in a timely manner.