Analysis on Dynamic Evolution of the Cost Risk of Prefabricated Building Based on DBN

Abstract

Prefabricated building constitutes the development trend of the construction industry in the future. However, many uncertainties in the construction process will surely lead to a higher cost. Therefore, it is necessary to study the cost risk evolution and transfer mechanism in the implementation process of this project. A dynamic evolution model for the cost risk of prefabricated buildings has been established in this paper. First of all, a matrix for cost risk of prefabricated buildings was established based on the WSR (Wuli-Shili-Renli) model, and all risk factors in the implementation stage were classified in accordance with the WSR principle. Second, a DBN-based dynamic evolution model was established based on the risk matrix, and the structure and node parameters of the Dynamic Bayesian Network were determined with the aid of the K2 structure learning algorithm and parameter learning method. In view of the probability change process of risks over time, the dynamic evolution path of risks was predicted in different cases through causal reasoning and diagnostic reasoning. Eventually, the model was applied into construction projects. The research results show that: because prefabricated components need to be made by prefabricated component factories, the management systems of prefabricated component factories are usually not perfect, and the probability of management risks is higher. The occurrence of management risks not only has an impact on other risks at the current time node, but also causes other risks to occur in the subsequent transportation and construction phases at the next moment, which eventually leads to the occurrence of risk events.