Analysis on driving factors and prediction of dynamic change of Poyang lake area

Abstract

Landsat8TM/OLI satellite FROM GLC remote sensing dataset is used to study the dynamic changes and driving factors of the area of Poyang Lake. The results show that: From 2001–2015, the area of Poyang’s area showed a downward trend, with a large intermediate fluctuation, but the overall trend was stable, and the dynamic variation degree was 0.07 %. Using Person correlation and grey correlation analysis of the driving factors, it can be seen that in terms of natural factors, the precipitation factor has the greatest driving degree to the lake area. In the aspect of social factors, agricultural factors drive lake area obviously. Through the combination of the principal component analysis method and the analysis, it is concluded that the driving force of area is dominated by social factors. This study breaks through the traditional research on lake area change and provides a more comprehensive and in-depth understanding of lake water resources management through the comprehensive application of remote sensing technology, statistical analysis and time series model. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study water resources using remote sensing technology, which helps us grasp and study the dynamic change process of water resources in Poyang region timely and accurately. In addition, the driving factors influencing the area change of Poyang and the contribution of each driving factor to the area of Poyang are analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively, and used LSTM to predict the future changes of the area of Poyang. In order to improve the current problems such as the area shrinkage, ecological degradation and ecological single of Poyang, the paper provides a method guidance for the study on the influence of the dynamic change of shallow lake area in the future.