Analysis on Comprehensive Risk Assessment for Urban Fire: The Case of Haikou City

Abstract

This paper first defines the term “urban fire risk” by referring to both the definition of “risk” in U.N.’s “International Strategy for Disaster Reduction” which was enacted in 2004 and the features of urban fire. Secondly, this paper presents a comprehensive analysis on the urban fire risk from the respects of risk of fire accidents in urban areas, urban vulnerability and urban anti-fire capability. Based on the analysis, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed in this paper to establish an urban fire risk assessment system, which includes 3 first-level indicators, 13 second-level indicators and 48 third-level indicators. With the data on fire accidents and fire statistics in the past as the basis, this paper applies the Gray Correlation Degree Method to set up the Weight Coefficient of the system and quantify the indicators mentioned above, and finally, this paper applies what has been discussed above to the case of Haikou, capital city of Hainan province, P.R. China. In the city's chosen 17 sub-districts and 1 town, fire risk assessments are conducted, and the values of risk of fire accidents in urban areas, urban vulnerability, anti-fire capability and comprehensive fire risk in the mentioned selected areas are computed and identified.