Analysis on absolute conflict and relative conflict of land use in Xining metropolitan area under different scenarios in 2030 by PLUS and PFCI

Abstract

As the highest level of urbanization in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Xining metropolitan area has unique development conditions and its own characteristics. Based on land use dataset, socio-economic dataset, natural conditions dataset, and restricted development area dataset, we forecast the 6 land use types in 7 districts and 6 counties of Xining metropolitan area under different scenarios in 2030 using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Then we summarize the characteristics of the land use in 2010, 2020 and different scenarios in 2030. Subsequently, the absolute land use conflict and relative land use conflict of Xining metropolitan area in 2010, 2020 and different scenarios in 2030 are measured, via Spatial Comprehensive Conflict Index (SCCI) and the Pythagorean Fuzzy Conflict Information (PFCI) system. Results show that: Expansion of built-up land in the core and the peripheral in 2030 is comparable, but cultivated land in the peripheral shows a more obvious decrease trend. There is a high proportion of cultivated land and built-up land with strong absolute conflicts. The absolute conflict in the peripheral area is more serious. In addition, the peripheral area is the main source of relative conflict, and has advantages of development. Finally, we discuss the logics of land use conflict and the relationship between absolute land use conflict and relative land use conflict. Ultimately, development strategies for Xining metropolitan area are given. This paper aims to provide reference suggestions to alleviate the conflict of land use and to promote the sustainable development in Xining metropolitan area.