Analysis of Wildfire Susceptibility by Weight of Evidence, Using Geomorphological and Environmental Factors in the Marche Region, Central Italy

Abstract

Fires are a growing problem even in temperate climate areas, such as those in Central Italy, due to climate change leading to longer and longer periods of drought. Thus, knowing the fire susceptibility of an area is crucial for good planning and taking appropriate countermeasures. In this context, it was decided to use only causal factors of a geomorphological and environmental nature in order to obtain a fire susceptibility analysis that can also be applied to climatically under-sampled areas. Vector data of fires in Central Italy from 2005 to 2023 were collected, and the correct areal extent was calculated for each. At the same time, six factors were selected that could have an influence on fire development, such as ecological units, topographic wetness index (TWI), geology, slope, exposure, and altitude. The model was obtained by means of the weight of evidence statistical method, which takes into account past data by reinterpreting them in a future-oriented way on the basis of the identified factors and classes. The model was validated with a test sample and shows an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.72 with a reliability that can be described as good considering the total absence of climatic factors that are known to play a major role in fire development. Furthermore, the identified causal factors were divided into classes, and these were carefully weighted in order to define their relative influence in the study area. Particularly Ecological Units with characteristic and well-defined contrast (C) values, which could lead to a more complete definition of forests that tend to increase fire susceptibility and those that tend to decrease it, allowing the latter to be exploited as a hazard mitigation agent.