Analysis of weather effects on variability in Lyme disease incidence in the northeastern United States.

Abstract

In this study, variability in reported Lyme disease incidence between 1993 and 2001 was analyzed in seven states in the northeastern part of the USA. Positive significant correlations at p < 0.05 were found in all states between early summer disease incidence and the June moisture index in the region two years prior. These correlations may reflect an enhanced nymphal Ixodes scapularis survival under wetter conditions. In some states, significant correlations were observed related to warmer winter weather a year and a half prior to disease incidence, which may have been due to higher survival and activity levels of the white-footed mouse, an important host for I. scapularis ticks.