Abstract
Water resource is an important factor restricting social-economic development. Hebei Province is one of the regions suffering from severe water shortage in China. Based on the Water Resources Assessment and Planning model, population growth, economic growth, water-saving, and integrated scenarios were established. The water demand and supply in Hebei Province in 2025 and 2035 were forecasted in this study. The research results show that agriculture is the main unmet water demand sector. In the absence of large-scale population inflows, the local population growth has little impact on the changes in water supply-demand. Economic development is one of the main factors affecting water balance. The water-saving scenario has the greatest impact on water supply-demand. Compared to population and economic growth scenarios, the simulation results of water demand and unmet water demand were the smallest. Under an integrated scenario, the current situation of water shortage in Hebei has been greatly improved, but there is still a demand shortage of44.12×108 m3 in 2030. It is necessary to take measures to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in various regions of Hebei Province and narrow the regional gap. This study provided a reference for the rational utilization of water resources.
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