Abstract
We analyzed the variation trends in precipitation according to the observed data in the Shaying River catchment, upstream of the Huai River from 1951 to 2010, using the linear regression method and Mann-Kendall test. Further study was made by introducingR/Sanalysis, and the corresponding Hurst Exponent was estimated to predict the future trends of rainfall. The results suggested that the changing trends in precipitation for different time series in the whole catchment were relatively complex and not obvious. The annual precipitation showed a slightly increasing trend over the past 60 years, and in the future it would be antipersistent. For the 38 rainfall stations, the trends in spring and autumn precipitation time series were mostly negative; on the contrary, the trends in summer and winter were mostly positive. The results also indicated that the annual precipitation series showed positive trends in the northern region and negative trends in the southern region. Moreover, the relationships ofH-ZandH-βof the 38 stations were analyzed. The results indicated that the greater the absolute values ofZthe stronger the persistent nature. Meanwhile, for most of theHvalues were close to 0.5, the randomness of the future trends could not be ignored.
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