Abstract
In order to play the important role of electric vehicles to promote the realization of the 3060 double carbon target, electric vehicles have seen explosive growth. However, due to the tight symmetry between the number and distribution of electric vehicles and their corresponding charging facilities, the layout of charging facilities has higher requirements. This paper collects travel data in the form of a traffic travel questionnaire for electric vehicle users. Based on the vehicle parking demand model of the queuing theory and Monte Carlo simulation, the paper gives the number of stopping vehicles and the time of vehicles stopping in different places such as residential areas, workplaces, supermarket parking and roadside. In addition, based on the Bass prediction model, the main parameters are modeled in the model, and the price correction coefficient is introduced. The improved Bass model is used to predict the growth trend of electric vehicles in different regions in different years and in different incentive sites. By predicting the ownership of urban electric vehicles and accurately grasping the distribution and operation of electric vehicles, this paper can provide guidance and suggestions for the planning and construction of charging facilities in different regions, effectively reduce the investment cost of charging facilities and guide local governments to formulate reasonable planning schemes.
Highlights
As oil resources become increasingly scarce, traditional fuel vehicles consume a lot of energy and emit a lot of greenhouse gases, while electric vehicles, as a power source, have the advantages of low pollution and high energy efficiency [1,2], the large-scale development of electric vehicles is one of the means to alleviate the increasingly severe energy and environmental problems [3]
All the electric vehicles entering the charging station for charging are independent of each other, when time interval length ∆t is small enough, in the time period [t, t + ∆t], the probability of customer arriving service system is only related with the length of time interval, and it is not related to the starting time, and in the time period [t, t + ∆t], the probability of two customers arriving the service system at the same time is very small, the above characteristics satisfy the characteristics of Poisson distribution that are no aftereffect, stationarity and general type
From the point of developing the low temperature adaptability of the electric vehicle in winter, through attaching with the power battery manufacturers, such as BYD (Shenzhen, China), CATL (Ningde, China), collecting the official electric vehicle test report in cold weather (Mohe in Heilongjiang, Zhangjiakou in Hebei), and making electric vehicle owners using condition research in the north of Xinjiang, it is found that foreign electric vehicle range about 20~25% lower in winter (Tesla 20% lower), domestic electric vehicle range about 40~50% lower in winter
Summary
As oil resources become increasingly scarce, traditional fuel vehicles consume a lot of energy and emit a lot of greenhouse gases, while electric vehicles, as a power source, have the advantages of low pollution and high energy efficiency [1,2], the large-scale development of electric vehicles is one of the means to alleviate the increasingly severe energy and environmental problems [3]. If not planned, the rapid growth of the number of electric vehicles will seriously affect the symmetry of the number and distribution between them and the supporting charging facilities It is the basis of planning charging facilities to make reasonable statistics of travel rules and accurately predict the later period of ownership [4,5,6]. The travel patterns and the forecast results of electric vehicles can accurately grasp the distribution and operation of electric vehicles and provide data support for safe charging of electric vehicles, effectively reducing the occurrence of battery spontaneous combustion and charging facility failure during the charging process It can provide guidance and suggestions for the planning and construction of charging facilities in the region, which can effectively reduce the investment cost of charging facilities and guide the local government to make reasonable planning schemes.
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