Abstract
In the chemical industry parks, large amounts of hazardous substances are processed and stored, while the leakage of hazardous substances can easily trigger a domino effect. Probit models were widely used to assess the escalation probability of domino effects, but ignoring the synergistic effects in higher-order propagation. In this paper, based on expert knowledge to identify the propagation rules of domino effects, a layered fuzzy Petri net (LFPN) is proposed to model the multi-order domino effect propagation paths. In the process of fuzzy reasoning, the calculation method of LFPN relevant parameters is provided. Finally, a case study demonstrates the validity of the proposed method for fire-induced domino effects, while the research content contributes to an in-depth understanding of the characteristics of domino effects and provides a theoretical basis for blocking the evolutionary process of domino effects.
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