Analysis of uncertainty propagation path of fire-induced domino effect based on an approach of layered fuzzy Petri nets

Abstract

In the chemical industry parks, large amounts of hazardous substances are processed and stored, while the leakage of hazardous substances can easily trigger a domino effect. Probit models were widely used to assess the escalation probability of domino effects, but ignoring the synergistic effects in higher-order propagation. In this paper, based on expert knowledge to identify the propagation rules of domino effects, a layered fuzzy Petri net (LFPN) is proposed to model the multi-order domino effect propagation paths. In the process of fuzzy reasoning, the calculation method of LFPN relevant parameters is provided. Finally, a case study demonstrates the validity of the proposed method for fire-induced domino effects, while the research content contributes to an in-depth understanding of the characteristics of domino effects and provides a theoretical basis for blocking the evolutionary process of domino effects.