Analysis of Turkey’s Detrending Economics Using the Hodrick-Prescott Filter

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of detrending policies in Turkey using the Hodrick- Prescott (HP) filter, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and selected indicators from 2010 to 2021. The HP filter is a commonly used statistical tool for detrending time series data by separating the trend component from the cyclical component of a series. The discussion section shows the observable and physical impact of overlooking the cyclical components over the trend components. It also contains verifiable facts from several trustworthy sources showing the precise impact of detrending the economy. The final section of this work contains the final results and recommendations that make up the entirety of this work’s body. By analyzing the trend in GDP and selected indicators such as inflation, exchange rate, and unemployment rate, we can gain insights into how Turkey’s economy has been affected by detrending policies; and provides a basis from which better policies can be founded.