Analysis of tropical climate variability based on the TAO/TRITON observation

Abstract

The TRITON (triangle trans-ocean buoy network) buoy array consists of the tropical Pacific buoy network together with the TAO buoy array for monitoring and better understanding El Nino phenomena, which cause abnormal weather and affect socio-economic activity all over the world. El Nino phenomena have been well observed in the past twenty years. However, we still do not have enough prediction skill for the purpose to mitigate disasters from El Nino. For example, most models operating for El Nino prediction, including Japan Meteorological Agency model, have all failed to forecast the onset and termination of the 2006 El Nino. In this study, after reviewing recent progress of understanding on El Nino, the first half of this presentation introduces possible atmospheric and oceanic processes involved in El Nino cycle, based on analysis of the observed buoy data, which are performed as our activity and were published or will be published in scientific journal. The second half highlights the importance of maintenance and technological development of tropical buoy arrays.