Analysis of Trents of Future Temperature in the Bosten Lake Basin Based on a Statistical Downscaling Model

Abstract

Abstract Growing interests in simulating changes in hydrological processes on global and regional scales have been raised by more frequent strong floods and droughts on the global scale induced by climate change, which would have significant impacts on social and economic systems, food security and the survival and development of humans. General circulation models (GCMs) perform reasonably well in simulating current climate in terms of annual or seasonal averages on large spatial scales, thereby showing the capability to provide inputs for studies associated with hydrological responses to climate change on continental or global scale. However, the models perform poorly on small spatial and time scales relevant to regional impact analysis. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is considered a very useful tool to address spatial-matching problems. It enables the study of climate change response to be carried out on local scales. In this paper, the applicability of SDSM in the Bosten Lake Basin was evalua...