Abstract
Under the background of sino-us trade friction, what kind of trade diversion effect will china produce to the third country market. Based on the monthly import and export data of China and its 11 major trading partners from January 2014 to December 2019, this paper analyzes the trade diversion of sino-us trade frictions to China’s neighboring countries by using the double-difference and panel quantile methods, and through the selection of developing countries and developed countries as a control group for the spillover effects of trade transfer analysis. Empirical analysis: under the background of China’s trade frictions, China’s imports and exports to the United States have been significantly negatively affected, the trade conflict between China and the United States has a significant trade diversion effect on the third country, and the spillover effect on the developing country is larger and longer-term than that on the developed country.
Highlights
By the end of October 2019, China and the United States had exchanged tariffs for more than six rounds, and China and the United States have fought many rounds of trade wars
The main reasons are twofold: first, when trade frictions occur between China and the United States, the United States takes various forms of restraint against Chinese products, such as imposing high tariffs, implementing technical barriers, and sanctioning Chinese high-tech enterprises, it will lower the cost of products from third countries, increase the competitiveness of products from non-trade friction countries, and put products from China at a relative price disadvantage
The explanatory variable lnexit is the value of China’s exports to the exporting country I in T period, and LNIMIT is the value of China’s imports to the exporting country I in T period, post is a virtual variable to distinguish the trade friction between China and the United States, 0 before the trade friction between China and the United States, 1 after the trade friction between China and the United States; Treatmenti * postt is the interaction between the group virtual variable and the policy implementation virtual variable, which reflects the net effect of sino-us trade friction implementation
Summary
By the end of October 2019, China and the United States had exchanged tariffs for more than six rounds, and China and the United States have fought many rounds of trade wars. In 2018, against the backdrop of trade frictions between China and the United States, the interdependence among the EU, the United States and ASEAN, China’s major import and export trading partners, has deepened, and China’s economic interdependence with the world has deepened. That is, trade friction between China and the United States will increase the import and export volume of third countries. The main reasons are twofold: first, when trade frictions occur between China and the United States, the United States takes various forms of restraint against Chinese products, such as imposing high tariffs, implementing technical barriers, and sanctioning Chinese high-tech enterprises, it will lower the cost of products from third countries, increase the competitiveness of products from non-trade friction countries, and put products from China at a relative price disadvantage
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