Analysis of Tourism Generation Incorporating the Influence of Constraints Based on a Scobit Model

Abstract

Tourism generation is one of the most important aspects but it remains as an under-researched area in tourism demand forecasting and relevant behavior analysis. This study analyzes individual's decision on whether to go on vacation or not. First, a number of constraints that prohibit tourism participation are explored. Second, individual's choice of tourism participation is studied based on a Scobit model, which includes a skewness parameter to relax the assumption made in a binary logit model that the sensitivity of individuals to changes in explanatory variables is highest for those who have indifferent preferences over participation and non-participation. The authors also introduce the tourism constraint components into the model based on the theoretical consideration in the existing literature. The empirical application is conducted using the data stemmed from a web survey conducted in Japan in 2010. Using this data the impacts of several attributes on participation decisions in tourism are investigated.