Abstract
Lower reaches of the Amu Darya River Basin (LADB) is one of the typical regions which is facing the problem of water shortage in Central Asia. During the past decades, water resources demand far exceeds that supplied by the mainstream of the Amu Darya River, and has resulted in a continuous decrease in the amount of water flowing into the Aral Sea. Clarifying the dynamic relationship between the water supply and demand is important for the optimal allocation and sustainable management of regional water resources. In this study, the relationship and its variations between the water supply and demand in the LADB from the 1970s to 2010s were analyzed by detailed calculation of multi-users water demand and multi-sources water supply, and the water scarcity indices were used for evaluating the status of water resources utilization. The results indicated that (1) during the past 50 years, the average total water supply (TWS) was 271.88 × 108 m3/y, and the average total water demand (TWD) was 467.85 × 108 m3/y; both the volume of water supply and demand was decreased in the LADB, with rates of −1.87 × 108 m3/y and −15.59 × 108 m3/y. (2) percentages of the rainfall in TWS were increased due to the decrease of inflow from the Amu Darya River; percentage of agriculture water demand was increased obviously, from 11.04% in the 1970s to 44.34% in 2010s, and the water demand from ecological sector reduced because of the Aral Sea shrinking. (3) the supply and demand of water resources of the LADB were generally in an unbalanced state, and water demand exceeded water supply except in the 2010s; the water scarcity index decreased from 2.69 to 0.94, indicating the status changed from awful to serious water scarcity. A vulnerable balanced state has been reached in the region, and that water shortages remain serious in the future, which requires special attention to the decision-makers of the authority.
Highlights
Combined with Crop Water Requirement (CWR) and Peff, it can be known that the NIR of wheat and melon was the lowest, which are 501.37 mm and 517.67 mm, respectively, while the NIR was highest for rice and corn, which were 908.64 mm and 804.89 mm, respectively (Figure 6b)
Water demand and supply in the LADB were calculated over the past
The findings revealed that both water supply and demand are decreasing with rates of −1.87 × 108 m3 /y and −15.59 × 108 m3 /y, respectively
Summary
In arid and semi-arid areas, water resources restrict the development of the regional ecosystems and social-economic [1]. Reasonable allocation of limited water resources and improvement of utilization efficiency is the key to alleviating water resources shortage and promoting social-economic development [2]. Under the dual impact of climate change and human activity, the water supply from the Amu Darya River was continuously decreased, while the water demand sharply increased with the development of the national economy, for the increase of irrigation water.
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