Analysis of the Variability of Wave Energy Due to Climate Changes on the Example of the Black Sea

Yana Saprykina,Sergey Kuznetsov

doi:10.3390/en11082020

Yana Saprykina, Sergey Kuznetsov

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/en11082020

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Abstract

An analysis of the variability of wave climate and energy within the Black Sea for the period 1960–2011 was made using field data from the Voluntary Observing Ship Program. Methods using wavelet analysis were applied. It was determined that the power flux of wave energy in the Black Sea fluctuates: the highest value is 4.2 kW/m, the lowest is 1.4 kW/m. Results indicate significant correlations among the fluctuations of the average annual wave heights, periods, the power flux of wave energy, and teleconnection patterns of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR). It was revealed that, in positive phases of long-term periods of AMO (50–60 years) as well as PDO, NAO, and AO (40 years), a decrease of wave energy was observed; however, an increase in wave energy was observed in the positive phase of a 15-year period of NAO and AO. The positive phase of changes of EA/WR for periods 50–60, 20–25, and 13 years led to an increase of wave energy. The approximation functions of the oscillations of the average annual wave heights, periods, and the power flux of wave energy for the Black Sea are proposed.

Highlights

Numerous opportunities for renewable natural energy sources, such as wind and wave energy, are being widely discussed
After a comparison of the changes in climatic indices and wave energy (Figures 4 and 8) and on the basis of the wavelet correlation analysis, it can be assumed that a significant decrease in power flux of wave energy in the mid-1980s is associated with a positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for long-term periods, and the largest increase in the early 1990s is associated with a positive phase of short-period changes of NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO), and East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR)
As a result of an analysis, which used Voluntary Observing Ship Program wave data, it was found that the average power flux of the wave energy in the Black Sea during the period 1960–2011 was

Summary

Introduction

Numerous opportunities for renewable natural energy sources, such as wind and wave energy, are being widely discussed. The average annual wave power energy flux estimates made by Galabov [5] for the southwestern part of the Black Sea did not exceed 3 kW/m and fluctuated from. 1.5 to 4 for the period 1900–2010 Both the accuracy of the wave models and wind reanalysis data and the length of the time interval over which such estimates are made should influence wave energy estimates, especially if there is long-term climate variability of the wave data. The main goal of this work is to analyze the wave climate variability of the Black Sea on the basis of long-term field observations data, to identify the main periods of climatic variability, and to make estimates of the possible variability of wave energy in connection with climate change

Data and Methods of Analysis

Fluctuations

Findings

Conclusions